Epoch AI Estimates 72% of World's AI Compute Went to US Since 2022
Summary
Epoch AI launched an AI Chip Imports explorer that estimates national arrivals of AI compute from customs records. The researchers estimate 19.8 million of 27.4 million H100-equivalents shipped from 2022 through June 2026, or 72%, went to the United States, while China received 10% including domestic production.
Key Points
- Epoch AI puts China's total between 1.9 million and 4.2 million H100-equivalents under alternative assumptions about trade content.
- The US share of new AI compute climbs to 78% in the first half of 2026, from about 60% in 2022.
- Cumulative customs-derived chip spending stays within 4% of Epoch AI's sales estimates from mid-2023 to mid-2026.